تحلیل خاورمیانه و پاسخ اسرائیل به ایران توسط جان مرشایمر

Shahab Mousavi
23.3K views • October 22, 2024

بزرگترین استاد زنده ژئوپلتیک دنیا از درگیری ایران و اسرائیل و نتایج آن می گوید...

0:00 thank you all for coming out tonight I'm
0:03 amazed at how many people are here uh
0:06 the subject I want to talk about for
0:08 about 25 minutes uh and then I'll be
0:12 more than willing after Peter makes his
0:14 comments on my comments to take any
0:17 questions that folks have uh is all
0:22 about American Grand strategy and my
0:26 argument is that the United States is
0:29 losing
0:30 focus and you say to yourself what
0:33 exactly does that mean I believe that
0:36 the principal threat that the United
0:38 States faces in the world is the rise of
0:40 China and the possibility that China
0:43 might try to dominate Asia and I think
0:46 we have a deep-seated interest in
0:48 containing
0:50 China but what's happened is that the
0:52 United States has lost focused and it's
0:55 got
0:56 diverted into the Ukraine war in Europe
1:01 and it's now getting diverted into the
1:03 Middle East uh with the war between
1:07 Hamas and Israel and the United States
1:10 is therefore unable to Pivot completely
1:14 to Asia and I think this is a major
1:17 mistake for the United States and what I
1:20 want to do tonight is elaborate my
1:23 thinking on that main thesis okay the
1:27 best starting point for thinking about
1:30 this issue is just to talk about the
1:32 global balance of power it's very
1:35 understand very important to understand
1:37 that most of the young people in the
1:39 audience came of age during the unipolar
1:44 moment the period from 1989 when the
1:47 Cold War ended up until about
1:51 2017 is commonly known as the unipolar
1:54 moment and what that means is that there
1:57 was only one great power on the planet
2:00 and that one great power was the United
2:03 States of America this is a world that
2:06 Australians almost to a person loved
2:10 because the United States provided
2:11 security for you and there was no China
2:14 threat there was no Soviet threat and
2:17 you were able to
2:19 grow economically in all sorts of ways
2:22 to become more prosperous this was the
2:25 unipolar moment but it's very important
2:27 to understand that what's happened is
2:30 that the unipolar moment is in the
2:32 rearview mirror it's gone we are now in
2:36 a multi-polar world where we went from
2:40 one great power to three great
2:43 Powers the United States China and
2:46 Russia and we now consider Russia a
2:48 great power because Vladimir Putin since
2:52 he took over in 2000 has brought the
2:54 Russians back from the dead most of you
2:57 know that in the 1990s Russia had
3:00 basically died Putin brought them back
3:02 from the dead so Russia's a great power
3:05 China's a great power and of course
3:07 Uncle Sam is a great power now it's
3:09 important to understand that Uncle Sam
3:12 is still the most powerful State on the
3:15 planet but nevertheless China is a pure
3:19 competitor it is growing economically it
3:22 is growing militarily and it is
3:24 beginning to close in on the United
3:26 States and that's why I said to you
3:28 folks before China is the real threat to
3:31 the United States Russia is the weakest
3:36 of those three great Powers okay it's
3:39 very important to understand that's the
3:41 basic architecture of the system at this
3:43 point in time right we went from
3:45 uniparity to multipolarity we have three
3:48 great Powers Sam is one China is two and
3:53 the Russians are a distant third that's
3:55 the
3:56 world let me switch gears now and just
3:59 talk a little bit little bit about
4:01 American Grand strategy and tie it to
4:03 that Global balance of
4:05 power for the United States of America
4:08 there are three areas that you fight and
4:10 die for where you expand blood and iron
4:13 those three areas of the world are
4:17 Europe East Asia and the Persian Gulf
4:21 you care about Europe and you care about
4:23 East Asia because that's where the great
4:25 powers are and if you're the United
4:27 States of America and you're a great
4:28 power you you care about the other great
4:31 Powers the gulf is of great interest to
4:34 the United States and other countries on
4:36 the planet simply because it has oil and
4:39 oil is a very special resource and the
4:42 United States does not want any country
4:45 controlling all of the oil in the
4:48 Persian Gulf so the United States has a
4:50 deep-seated interest in maintaining a
4:52 balance of power in the Persian
4:55 Gulf now we have these three areas of
4:58 the world East Asia Europe and the gulf
5:02 historically the United States has cared
5:06 the most about Europe Europe has been
5:09 historically much more important than
5:12 East Asia and that's because the most
5:15 powerful great powers on the planet have
5:18 been located mainly in Europe Nazi
5:21 Germany was a much greater threat than
5:24 Imperial Japan the Soviet Union which
5:26 spanned Europe and Asia had most of its
5:29 military might concentrated in Europe so
5:32 we have long had a Europe first
5:35 policy that changed after
5:39 2017 for the first time in American
5:41 history East Asia is the most important
5:44 area of the world for us why is that the
5:46 case one very simple reason who's the
5:49 peer competitor out there it's not
5:51 Germany it's not Russia it's China where
5:54 is China located it's located in East
5:57 Asia therefore East Asia is the most
6:00 important area of the world and what I'm
6:02 telling you is that the United States
6:04 should
6:05 pivot right to East Asia and not get
6:09 bogged down in
6:11 Europe the Russians don't matter that
6:14 much they're not a threat to dominate
6:16 Europe and the Persian Gulf does not
6:19 have a potential hemon sitting in that
6:21 region there's no one country that's
6:24 going to take over all the oil so we're
6:27 in an Ideal World free to
6:30 Pivot but we've not fully pivoted and
6:34 what I'm telling you and I'm going to
6:36 lay this out in more detail is we are
6:39 going to get more deeply
6:43 involved in
6:45 Ukraine and in the Middle East than we
6:48 already are and in both cases the
6:51 problem is not going to go away the
6:53 situation regarding Ukraine and Russia
6:56 is going to get worse with time for us
6:59 and the Israeli Palestinian conflict and
7:02 the problems in the Middle East are
7:04 going to get worse as well Darkness
7:06 ahead in both regions and what does that
7:09 mean it means it's difficult to
7:12 Pivot one final
7:14 Point very important to understand that
7:17 if the United States is worried about
7:19 dealing with China and there's one other
7:22 great power in the system and that other
7:24 great power is Russia you want Russia on
7:28 your side of The Ledger in other words
7:31 if you're the United States and you're
7:33 looking at a China threat and there's
7:35 Russia you want Russia with you because
7:38 Russia represents power it is a great
7:40 power you want the Russians with you
7:43 against the Chinese what have we
7:45 foolishly done we have foolishly pushed
7:50 the Russians into the arms of the
7:53 Chinese so the Russians and the Chinese
7:56 as you surely all know are tightly alied
7:59 this is not in our interest it should be
8:02 Uncle Sam and the
8:04 Chinese I mean excuse me Uncle Sam and
8:06 the Russians that are tightly Allied
8:09 against China that's the basic situation
8:12 that we face this is why I say we've
8:15 lost focus and we're in trouble now what
8:18 I want to do is I want to unpack it for
8:21 you I want to unpack this argument in
8:22 Greater detail number one I want to
8:25 briefly talk about East Asia and what's
8:27 happened with regard to US policy toward
8:29 China that's pretty straightforward but
8:31 then I want to get into the tricky
8:33 issues one Ukraine and two the Middle
8:35 East talk about the Ukraine war and the
8:38 Israel Palestine conflict and its
8:40 potential for escalation and make my
8:44 point that we're going to have a tough
8:46 time fully pivoting to East
8:48 Asia let's start with
8:51 Ukraine uh let me just give you a little
8:54 bit of background on the history of the
8:56 Ukraine problem so you have a feel for
8:59 sort of how this got started and why
9:02 we're in the present
9:04 situation when the Cold War ended uh the
9:07 United States debated whether or not to
9:11 expand NATO
9:12 Eastward and we decided in the early 9s
9:15 the Bill Clinton administration did that
9:17 we were going to expand NATO
9:19 Eastward and the Russians made it
9:22 unequivocally clear from the beginning
9:24 this was unacceptable they just were
9:26 opposed but they were very weak in the
9:28 1990 remember what I said before and
9:31 they were even very weak in the early
9:33 2000s this is before they are brought
9:36 back from the dead by Putin so in
9:40 1999 we shove NATO expansion down their
9:44 face down your throat when we bring in
9:47 Poland Hungary and the Czech Republic
9:50 that's 1999 okay then in 2004 we shove
9:55 another trunch of NATO expansion down
9:58 their throat that this is when we bring
10:00 in the Baltic
10:02 states Romania Bulgaria Slovenia
10:06 Slovakia the Russians are hollering out
10:10 loud that this is unacceptable they
10:12 don't want it but they're too weak and
10:16 we push it down their throat that's 2004
10:18 first trunch 99 second trunch 2004 in
10:22 April 2008 that's when we make the
10:25 really big mistake we say at Bucharest
10:28 the annual ual NATO Summit AT Bucharest
10:31 April 2008 we're bringing Ukraine and
10:35 Georgia into the
10:37 alliance Putin says at the time the
10:40 Russians make it unequivocally clear
10:42 across the board this this is not
10:45 happening and Putin makes it clear that
10:48 he will destroy Ukraine before he allows
10:52 it to become a member of the alliance
10:55 the Americans think that they can just
10:58 shove it down Putin's throat just like
11:01 they did in 1999 just like they did in
11:05 2004 so we continue to push and not only
11:08 are we pushing NATO expansion we're
11:11 pushing EU expansion at the same time
11:14 and we're trying to foster a color
11:16 Revolution many of you I'm sure remember
11:19 the orange Revolution we were trying to
11:21 Foster in Ukraine what are we doing
11:23 there we're trying to turn Ukraine into
11:27 a liberal democracy that has Pro West
11:30 orientation this Spooks the Russians
11:33 like you wouldn't believe a liberal
11:35 Democratic Ukraine that's in the EU
11:39 that's in NATO especially in NATO on
11:41 their
11:42 border the crisis breaks out in
11:47 2014 2008 Bucharest 2014 is when the
11:52 crisis breaks out that's when the
11:54 Russians take Crimea number one and two
11:58 that's when the Civil War breaks out
12:00 inside Ukraine in the
12:04 donbass so there's Big Trouble in
12:07 2014 and that trouble
12:10 continues
12:11 through
12:15 2021 and at the end of 2021 the Russians
12:19 are scrambling to get some sort of
12:20 agreement the Americans won't agree and
12:23 on February 24th
12:26 2022 a war breaks out the present War
12:30 breaks out so you see the crisis broke
12:32 out in 2014 and that's when Crimea was
12:35 lost and then eight years later February
12:40 2022 the war that we now read about
12:44 every day broke
12:47 out that's the
12:49 background what you want to now think
12:52 about is what's happening in that war
12:57 where is this train headed that's what
12:59 you want to
13:00 know now in 2022 remember the war breaks
13:04 out in February 2022 if you go from
13:06 February 2022 to the end of the year
13:09 let's say December 31st 2022 over that
13:12 time period the ukrainians do very well
13:15 they do very well uh the Russians are
13:18 slow to mobilize and the Russians are
13:21 not a highly efficient Fighting Force at
13:23 that point in time and we're beginning
13:26 to think in 2022 that we're going to be
13:29 beat the Russians push them out of the
13:31 donbass pushed them out of Crimea and
13:35 really maybe even knocked them out of
13:37 the ranks of the great Powers so we're
13:39 playing hard ball with the Russians but
13:42 what the Russians do in the end at the
13:44 end of September 2022 is they mobilized
13:47 300,000 men and they begin to learn how
13:51 to fight on the battlefield and then
13:53 over the course of 2023 the year that
13:55 we're now in they are raising an
13:58 additional four
13:59 425,000
14:02 men and they have an industrial base
14:05 that allows them to produce huge amounts
14:08 of artillery huge numbers of Tanks huge
14:11 numbers of aircraft huge numbers of
14:14 helicopters right ukrainians don't have
14:16 that capability they depend on us and
14:19 you know what we ran down our industrial
14:22 based during the unipolar moment we do
14:25 not we in the west includes you
14:27 Australia we do not collectively have
14:30 the capability to produce lots of
14:32 artillery tubes artillery shells tanks
14:34 and so forth and so on the Russians do
14:37 now why does this
14:39 matter what you want to understand about
14:41 this war between Ukraine and Russia is
14:43 it's a war of attrition it's Muhammad
14:46 Ali right and Joe Frasier standing
14:48 toe-to-toe pounding The Living Daylights
14:51 out of each other that's what it is
14:52 think World War I on the Western Front
14:55 okay that's the kind of War this is
14:57 nothing fancy about this one question
15:00 you want to ask yourself is who wins in
15:03 a war of attrition where two armies are
15:07 head-to-head two factors matter the
15:10 population size of each country because
15:13 that tells you how many soldiers you can
15:17 send to the front population size and
15:21 how much artillery each side
15:26 has uh when I went to West Point and I
15:29 was in the American Military we were
15:31 taught that artillery is the king of
15:34 battle right and a war of attrition that
15:37 is certainly true so the question is
15:40 what does the population ratio look like
15:42 between the two sides what's the
15:43 artillery ratio look like you want to
15:46 know what the population ratio is it's 5
15:48 to one in the Russians favor you want to
15:50 know what the artillery ratio looks like
15:53 it's somewhere between 5:1 and 10:1 and
15:56 most people think it's 10:1 at this
15:58 point time in the Russians favor and we
16:01 cannot we in the west cannot Rectify
16:03 that
16:05 imbalance so you have the situation
16:08 where the ukrainians are outnumbered
16:10 population-wise 5 to1 they're
16:12 outnumbered probably 7 to1 10 to one in
16:16 terms of artillery can't improve either
16:18 one of those situations and in a war of
16:20 attrition that's the kiss of death and
16:22 further we're on top of all that as you
16:24 know they launched a counter offensive
16:26 on 4 June of this year my God the
16:29 ukrainians have suffered enormous
16:32 casualties with these offensives we've
16:34 encouraged them to attack the
16:37 Russians it was foolish in the extreme
16:40 in my opinion the ukrainians should have
16:41 remained on the defensive they have
16:43 suffered such casualties and they
16:46 already were down 5 to1 population wise
16:49 and down in terms of
16:50 artillery they're going to lose they're
16:53 going to lose there's no way the
16:55 ukrainians can
16:56 win right
16:59 uh what does losing mean in this case
17:02 the Russians are not going to conquer
17:04 the whole country it would be a massive
17:06 mistake it's a huge piece of real estate
17:09 Ukraine and furthermore there are lots
17:11 of people especially in the central part
17:13 and the western part of Ukraine or are
17:15 ethnic ukrainians who hate the Russians
17:18 occupying that area would be insane what
17:21 the Russians are going to end up doing
17:24 is they now control close to
17:26 23% of Ukraine
17:29 I believe they'll try to take another
17:32 20% they have annexed they have annexed
17:35 the Russians have annexed four oblas
17:37 plus Korea and I believe that they will
17:40 try to ennex another four oblas and at
17:44 the same time they're going to go to
17:46 Great Lengths to turn Ukraine into a
17:49 dysfunctional rump State a dysfunctional
17:52 rum State they will interfere in the
17:55 politics of Ukraine they will interfere
17:57 with the Ukrainian economy and they will
17:59 do everything they can to wreck Ukraine
18:02 and keep it wrecked as they said they
18:05 would in 2008 and they have consistently
18:08 said
18:10 afterwards now the problem here I mean
18:14 aside from the fact that this is a
18:16 devastating defeat for Ukraine the
18:19 problem is Ukraine won't be knocked out
18:22 of the fight
18:24 completely and what you will get at some
18:27 point is not peace agreement you're not
18:29 going to get a peace agreement here
18:31 you're going to get a frozen conflict
18:33 the fighting will stop there'll be a
18:34 ceasefire and you'll have a frozen
18:36 conflict it'll be a lot like Korea on
18:38 the 38th parallel as you all know North
18:41 Korea on one side South Korea on the
18:43 other you'll have a frozen conflict and
18:45 the potential for escalation will be
18:48 ever presentes and you want to
18:51 understand the United States will be
18:55 involved in Ukraine in eastern Europe
18:59 doing everything it can to damage Russia
19:03 we will not lose gracefully we will not
19:06 lose in Ukraine and pivot to Asia we
19:10 will stay in Ukraine we will continue to
19:14 support Ukraine we will continue to look
19:17 for opportunities to screw the Russians
19:20 and the Russians will look for
19:22 opportunities to screw us you'll have
19:24 this nasty security competition in
19:27 Eastern Europe there's no end in sight
19:31 to the trouble that we are now facing in
19:34 Ukraine which by the way tells you what
19:36 a massive mistake we made in April 2008
19:40 trying to bring Ukraine into
19:44 NATO but my bottom line to you here is
19:48 that that makes it very difficult to
19:52 Pivot so that's the Ukraine issue and if
19:55 I had come here last
19:58 month instead of coming this month at
20:02 this point in time I would have stopped
20:05 the talk
20:06 here right but now we have another
20:11 massive problem confronting us that I
20:16 don't know who saw coming I certainly
20:19 didn't the Israelis certain didn't
20:22 certainly didn't see it coming but if
20:25 you go back to October 6th
20:29 it looked like the Middle East was a
20:31 peaceful region uh compared to what was
20:34 going on in Eastern Europe uh it looked
20:38 like a
20:40 remarkably um uh peaceful area uh and
20:45 Jake suvin as you know basically said
20:48 that uh that the Middle East hadn't
20:50 looked so good in a long time but then
20:53 came October 7th and Hamas attacked
20:57 Israel
20:58 and uh in a deadly effective
21:04 way and of course the Israelis uh have
21:09 reacted by declaring war on Hamas and
21:14 you now have this giant conflict between
21:18 Israel and Hamas that threatens to
21:22 escalate to where Hezbollah might come
21:25 in Conflict might break out on the west
21:29 or even the Iranians might come in so
21:34 this is a really dangerous situation and
21:37 much like
21:39 Ukraine we're going to sink deeper into
21:41 the mud here and this one's not going
21:44 away anytime soon right now why do I say
21:48 that first thing you want to keep in
21:50 mind when you talk about Israel and the
21:53 United States is that the two countries
21:56 are joined at the hip there's just no
21:58 question about that I don't think this
22:00 is a controversial issue I don't think
22:02 you've ever had a closer relationship
22:04 between any two countries than you have
22:07 between Israel and the United States so
22:11 it's very hard for the United States in
22:13 any meaningful way to distance itself
22:17 from Israel so that's the first point
22:19 you want to keep in mind second point
22:21 you want to keep in mind is that the tap
22:24 rot of the problem here is the Israel
22:27 Palestine or the Israel Palestinian
22:30 conflict that that's the tap route and
22:33 you just have to understand what that
22:36 conflict looks like this is a
22:38 longstanding conflict as you all know
22:41 but you just want to understand its
22:43 Essence because that tells you a lot
22:46 about what's happening now and what is
22:49 likely to happen over
22:52 time the United States has been deeply
22:56 interested in creating a two-state
22:59 solution as most of you I'm sure know in
23:04 uh Israel and what the United States has
23:07 been interested in doing is creating a
23:10 Palestinian state in the West Bank and
23:12 in Gaza and in East Jerusalem living
23:15 next door to a Jewish State
23:18 Israel we have failed we've not been
23:22 able to push the Israelis to accept that
23:25 and uh there's no two-state solution so
23:29 what the Israelis now have and which the
23:32 government in Israel wants is greater
23:35 Israel greater Israel includes the West
23:38 Bank Gaza and 1967 Israel or green line
23:45 Israel okay that's greater Israel the
23:48 key point you want to keep in mind is
23:50 that there are approximately
23:53 7.3 million Palestinians and
23:57 approximately
23:59 7.3 million Israeli Jews in Greater
24:03 Israel there is rough equality between
24:08 Palestinians and Israeli
24:10 Jews you just want to think about that
24:13 so when you think about Israel and you
24:15 think about Israel as the Jewish state
24:18 which is completely understandable you
24:19 want to understand that that Jewish
24:21 state has as many Palestinians in it as
24:25 it has Jews and by the way there's very
24:27 prominent uh demog uh demographic expert
24:30 who is Israeli who argues that there are
24:32 slightly more
24:33 Palestinians than there are Jews inside
24:36 greater Israel and furthermore when you
24:38 look at demographic Trends over time
24:41 they're going to be more Palestinians
24:44 than there are Jews and this is a Jewish
24:46 state so the question is what do you do
24:49 here uh and what is happened is that the
24:53 Israelis do not want to give equal
24:55 rights to the Palestinians because if
24:58 they gave equal rights to the
24:59 Palestinians Israel Would S cease to be
25:02 a Jewish State because they're more
25:04 Palestinians than there are Jews if not
25:06 now certainly in the future so in the
25:10 case of the Palestinians who are in Gaza
25:15 right basically they have been cordoned
25:18 off they have been isolated in Gaza and
25:22 it is common place to refer to Gaza as
25:25 the largest open air prison in the world
25:28 world and if you read virtually any
25:32 account of what life is like for those
25:36 Palestinians who live in Gaza it is
25:40 absolutely horrible there is just no
25:43 question about that they live under
25:46 horrible conditions in effect in a
25:48 prison you want to understand that
25:50 Israel controls the borders around Gaza
25:53 and it controls the air above Gaza these
25:55 are not disputable issues and again
25:58 there about 2.1 million of those 7.3
26:03 million Palestinians in Gaza and the
26:08 fact is that the Israelis who have been
26:14 playing hard ball with the
26:17 Palestinian since 1948 when the state of
26:20 Israel was
26:23 created are in a situation where the
26:26 Palestinians are going to erupt from
26:29 time to time most of us in this audience
26:33 have heard of the first inapa we have
26:35 heard of the second inapa the intifadas
26:38 were uprisings by the Palestinians the
26:42 Palestinians want their own nation state
26:46 just as the Jews wanted their own nation
26:49 state it's perfectly understandable that
26:51 the zionists were interested in coming
26:53 to Palestine and creating a Jewish State
26:57 a Jewish nation state that's completely
27:00 understandable but as my mother taught
27:01 me when I was a little boy what's good
27:03 for the goose is good for the gander and
27:05 if the Jews want their own nation state
27:07 are you surprised that the Palestinians
27:09 want their own nation state no and
27:12 American policy makers especially
27:14 American pres presidents going back to
27:16 Jimmy Carter understood this completely
27:19 and put enormous should have put
27:21 enormous pressure on Israel to accept a
27:24 two-state solution but we were incapable
27:27 of doing that we could not put great
27:29 pressure on Israel and the end result is
27:33 you have a greater Israel and inside
27:35 that greater Israel or 7.3 million
27:39 Palestinians and just to take this a
27:42 step further it's very controversial to
27:44 refer to Israel as an apartheid state
27:47 given how they treat the
27:48 Palestinians but Human Rights Watch
27:52 Amnesty International and betum bet
27:55 selum is one of the leading Human Rights
27:57 group groups in the world and it's an
27:59 Israeli Human Rights group Human Rights
28:02 Watch Amnesty International and bet
28:05 selum all have produced significant
28:08 reports that label Israel as an aparte
28:12 state so this is the reality that you
28:15 now
28:16 face and the problem is there is no way
28:21 the Israelis are ever going to agree to
28:23 a two-state solution because the
28:26 political center of gravity in is Israel
28:28 has moved far to the right over time and
28:32 is likely to move further to the right
28:35 over time if you look at the Israeli
28:39 demographic
28:41 situation uh Israeli women have large
28:45 numbers of babies uh compared to Western
28:49 birth rates but your average Ultra
28:53 Orthodox woman has about seven babies so
28:58 so what's happening is that the ultra
29:01 Orthodox who now represent 133% of the
29:05 population will probably represent about
29:09 30% of the population in 2050 or 2060
29:13 they're growing significantly in number
29:17 and the ultra Orthodox I mean they're a
29:19 problem for a variety of reasons for
29:21 Israel because first of all they don't
29:22 serve in the military secondly uh the
29:26 husbands don't work and in effect live
29:29 on welfare uh but furthermore their
29:32 politics are far to the right the old
29:34 Orthodox are not going to be sympathetic
29:36 to a two-state solution furthermore
29:39 after what happened on October 7th what
29:41 do you think the Israelis are going to
29:43 say when you say let's move towards a
29:45 two-state solution they're going to look
29:47 at you like you're crazy given what
29:49 happened on October 7th so all of this
29:51 is just to say the only hope in my
29:54 opinion of ever
29:56 settling this this conflict between the
29:59 Palestinians and the Jews inside of
30:02 Greater Israel was a two-state solution
30:05 and a two-state solution is not going to
30:08 happen that train has left the station
30:12 and again as I said to you it's very
30:13 important to understand that the United
30:16 States has joined at the hip with the
30:17 Israelis and therefore uh as this
30:21 situation continues to faster in Israel
30:24 we are inextricably bound up in it let
30:27 me just take this a step further talk
30:29 about the Israeli Palestinian
30:32 conflict first of all we have a
30:35 deep-seated interest in stability in the
30:37 Middle East we were working before
30:40 October 7th you all remember with Saudi
30:44 Arabia to get Saudi Arabia and Israel to
30:48 reach some sort of accommodation the
30:51 Abraham Accords that we had helped
30:54 facilitate during the Trump years
30:56 between Israel and irin Israel in
30:59 Morocco and Israel in the United Arab
31:02 Emirates where relations between Israel
31:04 and those three countries had
31:07 significantly improved the Biden
31:09 Administration was trying to get another
31:11 Abraham Accord this one which would have
31:14 been the big enchilada involving Israel
31:17 and Saudi Arabia that's all gone now
31:19 Saudi Arabia is timately opposed to
31:23 what's happening uh with regard to the
31:26 Israeli uh war against against the
31:29 Palestinians uh there's a possibility
31:32 Hezbollah may come into this conflict
31:35 the Israelis in Hezbollah are exchanging
31:38 rocket fire up on Israel's northern
31:41 border there's a possibility that Iran
31:43 might come in as I said before there's a
31:45 possibility that conflict will break out
31:47 on the West Bank approximately 90
31:50 Palestinians have been killed on the
31:52 West Bank since October 7th the
31:54 potential for this one spiraling out of
31:56 control within the context of the Middle
31:58 East is really uh very very worrisome
32:03 and by the way you understand you know
32:05 we sent this Armada this aircraft
32:07 carrier battle group The Gerald USS
32:10 Gerald Ford aircraft carrier battle
32:12 group off the coast put it off the coast
32:14 of Israel it shot down three cruise
32:17 missiles US forces shot down three
32:20 cruise missiles that the houthis and
32:23 Yemen had fired at Israel so in very
32:28 important way we've already been
32:29 involved in of course a very tiny way in
32:32 the fighting and if this one spins out a
32:35 control in a big way we're likely to get
32:38 Dragged In and furthermore as I told you
32:41 there's no hope of this going away
32:42 anytime soon then there's the Diplomatic
32:45 Dimension to this the Russians and the
32:47 Chinese just love this situation right
32:50 and they're saying all sorts of things
32:51 about how the Americans failed to
32:54 produce a diplomatic solution that would
32:56 have given the pales inian a state of
32:59 their own and this is of course a
33:01 message that resonates all around the
33:03 planet right we're in all sorts of
33:06 trouble in the Arab world this may lead
33:08 to another Oil
33:10 Embargo um uh and furthermore in the
33:13 global South the global South we're very
33:16 interested in winning the allegiance of
33:19 the global South especially to help us
33:21 in Ukraine we're in deep trouble in the
33:23 global South as a result of this so in
33:26 terms of stability in the middle e in
33:28 terms of our diplomatic position around
33:30 the world as a result of the Arab
33:32 Israeli conflict or the Palestinian
33:34 Israeli conflict we're we're in deep
33:36 trouble right and again this is one of
33:39 these situations that has no solution I
33:43 mean that I can see I hope I'm wrong I
33:45 hope I'm humiliated and a year from now
33:48 when I return when Tom brings me back I
33:50 can say I was wrong right the same thing
33:53 is true with Ukraine but I don't see the
33:56 Ukraine situation or the Middle East
33:58 situation looking any better brings me
34:01 to my bottom line we have a pure
34:04 competitor the Biden Administration as
34:07 far as I'm concerned to a person will
34:09 tell you that the principal threat the
34:11 United States of America faces is China
34:14 there is nobody who disagrees that China
34:17 is our biggest threat but what I'm
34:19 telling you is we're in a
34:21 situation where we can't fully pivot to
34:24 Asia to deal with that threat because
34:27 we're pinned down in the Middle East now
34:30 and before that in
34:32 Ukraine
34:34 furthermore
34:35 furthermore the Russians who should be
34:38 on our side because of our foolish
34:40 policies have pushed them on to the side
34:41 of the
34:43 Chinese this is not good and the final
34:47 point that I'll leave you with is as you
34:48 know we in the west and I'm sure this is
34:50 true of many Australians love the
34:52 rules-based order right we always talk
34:55 about the rules-based order we think
34:56 it's important to obey the rules and the
35:00 west of course the United States has
35:02 played a key role in establishing that
35:04 rules-based order which is in our
35:06 interest but the rules based order is in
35:11 tatters as a result of Ukraine the
35:15 Middle East uh and assorted other forms
35:18 of behavior by the United States so all
35:22 of this is to say we are in the Deep
35:25 kimchi thank you